AEF Community Event – Demand Side Modelling

LAUNCH Event

AEF Community Event – Demand Side Modelling, 4 February 2026, 14:00 to 16:00 CAT

Tools for demand side modelling

As part of building an energy and economic modelling community of African researchers African Energy Futures will periodically host learning events with prominent international and African researchers. Demand side modelling is an underappreciated part of broader energy modelling, and when doing supply side modelling we often make big assumptions. Demand side modelling also speaks much more to pressing development questions like industrialisation, energy access, and energy affordability. This requires development-driven, end-use oriented modelling, but in data deficient environments where you need to communicate your work to stakeholders that may not be quantitatively inclined. This event will have a series of speakers discussing various tools and aspects of demand side modelling and communication and a time for participants to engage and share their insight. This event is targeted primarily at research institutions and think tanks working in the broader modelling space. Policymakers interested in the development of local and trusted teams that can help drive energy development and investment in your country, and potential partners to the AEF mission may also be interested.

Agenda

Harvard Growth Labs - Greenplexity Tool - Ketan Ahuja

Ketan presented trade data-based tools that allow countries to assess their maturity to build value chains related to green industrial products (e.g. batteries, PV panels, wind towers). In combination with the Harvard Atlas for Economic Complexity, researchers can develop data driven industrial, and therefore demand, pathways for scenario planning.

Stockholm Environment Institute - Demand Side Modelling and LEAP – Charlie Heaps

Charlie presented an overview of the practicalities of demand side management and introduced us to LEAP, an open-source tool for energy modelling, with particular applications for demand side modelling.

Columbia University - Rural Electrification Modelling in Africa – Vijay Modi

Vijay shared with us some of his on the ground research thinking about demand in rural African applications focusing household and agricultural demand. The short message being that we both under- and over-estimate demand, resulting in potential infrastructure planning errors.

Event Speakers

Rose Mutiso

Facilitator: Rose M. Mutiso is a Science Advisor for the Energy for Growth Hub and chair of the AEF Advisory Board

Ketan Ahuja

Ketan Ahuja of the Harvard Growth Lab will address the thorny topic of industrialisation pathways. Ketan will introduce us to the Harvard Atlas for Economic Complexity and Greenplexity tools. Based on trade data and country-level capabilities, these tools allow us to explore likely industrial pathways.

Charlie Heaps

Charlie Heaps, from the Stockholm Environment Institute, will address the necessity of demand-side modelling, the common errors made, and introduce us to one of the most popular tools used for demand-side modelling: LEAP.

Vijay Modi

Vijay has been conducting research on estimating rural and agricultural demand in low-income African countries. He has shown that demand can be critically underestimated, leading to inefficiencies in generation and grid planning. If we are misestimating demand assumptions, even under current conditions, the task of energy access planning requires further work.